Oil, Gas & Geopolitics: Predictions For 2016




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"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." (Niels Bohr 1885 – 1962)

On January 1st 2015, with oil at $53 a barrel, who would have bet it would be a measly $30 twelve months later? Who would have bet that Iran would have come in from the cold, or China would go into economic freefall or that the European Union would have been inundated by an unrelenting flow of Middle Eastern refugees?

Had anyone played those odds, they would have become a very rich man on New Year’s Day 2016, so fraught with failure is presumption that seeks to be prophecy. Nevertheless, last year we made several predictions that came to fruition, and an educated guess is seldom misspent when there is no money on the line.

So, in the spirit of informed guestimation, we present you with ten predictions for the oil and gas and geopolitical landscape in 2016, and hope beyond hope that most are less prescient than they seem…

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